Spiky Futures V Shared Futures

I’ve been thinking more about the pitfalls of using universal statements—especially when it comes to resource constraints like carbon. Saying there’s “not enough carbon to build the homes we need” might be true in a broad sense, but it doesn’t mean no homes will be built. Instead, it means homes will be built only for those who can afford the higher price of carbon-intensive materials, leading to worsening housing inequality. It’s not that everyone is getting poorer; rather, some are becoming drastically poorer while others grow significantly wealthier. Universal claims often hide these accelerating asymmetries.

The same logic applies to labor. A constrained labor force doesn’t mean nothing gets built; it means only the most “valuable” things are constructed—again entrenching inequality. Likewise, high carbon prices won’t stop homebuilding outright; they’ll just restrict it to those with enough capital or political power to push for public housing.

We see a similar pattern with food. Future food crises will likely be highly uneven rather than uniformly experienced. The wealthy can afford high-quality, nutritious foods while the less affluent are relegated to cheaper, calorie-dense, synthetic options. Constraints, in other words, drive systemic inequality.

The real question is how and when these multiple inequalities intersect and cascade. At some point, they can destabilize the social contract so severely that the system of law and order itself is threatened—undermining even the ability to buy or distribute food securely. We may already be seeing the “micro-geopoliticization” of food, where access is driven by power and politics rather than price and value in a functioning marketplace. The mafiasation of our foundational economies.

All of this underscores the need to avoid simplistic, generalized statements. Instead, we must acknowledge the spikiness and nuance of these emerging realities—and recognise that only significant political intervention can redress the imbalances before they erode social stability altogether.